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Vietnam's June CPI likely to rise 1pct: NDHMoney
Vietnam's consumer price index (CPI) in June is expected to inch up by 1 percent, according to newswire NDHMoney using the Leontief and ARIMA models with data from 2007.
NDHMoney‘s analysts said the CPI in June will slow down to increase at a lower level than that in May thanks to the stock market’s recovery, stability of the monetary market and the forex rate that has significant impacts on the CPI.
If the forecast comes true, the CPI will have increased by 13 percent from December 2010 and come closer to approaching the adjustment target of 15 percent for the year, a 20 percent increase from the same period last year.
Compared with the same period in recent years, the June 2011 CPI may only be lower than the rise in June 2008, showing the evolution of the price index still remains stable compared with previous years.
The high June CPI will lead to the increase in the CPI in the coming months, although the growth may be lower.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecasts Vietnam's inflation may start to cool down from June, while the double-digit inflation rise over the same period last year will begin to decline in August.
However, ADB said that Vietnam is still able to raise interest rates, said Ayumi Konishi, representative of ADB in Vietnam.
Since monthly inflation rate from April to August last year was very low, even with the lightest monthly CPI increase in coming months, the annual increases will only continue to escalate from August, he added.
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