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ADB raises VN’s economic forecast to 6.7 pct
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) increased Vietnam’s economic growth forecast for 2010 from 6.5 percent to 6.7 percent while lowering the inflation projection to 8.5 percent.
In its Asian Development Outlook 2010 Update (ADO Update) released in Hanoi on Sept. 28, ADB also revised upward Vietnam’s GDP growth to 7 percent in 2011 from its April forecast of 6.8 percent.
“Vietnam has consolidated its macroeconomic stability, and as a result we are making upward adjustments in our growth forecast for both 2010 and 2011, while lowering the projections for inflation,” said Ayumi Konishi, ADB Country Director for Vietnam.
According to ADB Senior Expert Lei Lei Song, Vietnam is performing well in the context of the global crisis.
“The shift from strong fiscal and monetary stimulus implemented during the global recession to a more balanced policy stance helped to stabilise financial and economic conditions and, together with the global economic recovery, paved the way for solid economic growth this year,” he said.
According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s GDP growth rate reached 6.5 percent in the first nine months of 2010.
Vietnam’s neighbouring economies, such as China, continue their robust growth next year, which will help Vietnam’s economy grow, Song added.
China’s robust growth will demand more Vietnamese exports, contributing to the Southeast Asian country’s growth, he said.
Vietnam’s exports to China will continue to surge in the future, according to the senior expert.
Director Konishi said as Vietnam is a low-middle-income country in the next ten years, the country will have to face different challenges, including how to raise the efficiency of the economy.
One of the issues Vietnam should focus on in its economic development strategy for the next 10 years is to identify its role in the ASEAN bloc, he said, suggesting the country produce higher value products in its efforts to speed up national industrialisation and modernisation.
He also recommended that Vietnam pay attention to taking measures to narrow income gap in its development plan and attach environment protection to development.
According to Yumiko Tamura, ADB Principle Country Specialist, who is also Country Deputy Country Director, developing Asia countries, including Vietnam, are recovering with speed and vigour.
ADB forecast that these countries will see average growths of 8.2 percent in 2010 and 7.3 percent in 2011.
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