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Vietnam on track to reach 6.5% growth this year: ADB
Vietnam’s economy is on track to reach its targeted 6.5 percent growth this year, according to the Asian Development Bank’s Asia Economic Monitor (AEM) magazine on July 20.
The magazine said that emerging East Asian countries including Vietnam should unwind monetary and fiscal stimulus policies.
ADB has upgraded its 2010 growth forecast for the 14 economies of emerging East Asia to an aggregate 8.1 percent from the 7.7 percent projected in ADB’s Asian Development Outlook 2010 published in April. The forecast for the region’s economic growth in 2011 remains at 7.2 percent.
The AEM points to three major risks to the positive outlook for emerging East Asia: a disruption in the recovery of advanced economies; destabilizing capital flows; and unintended policy errors while developing the stimulus measures.
According to AEM, in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Taipei, China tightening has already begun, and should continue at what appears to be an appropriate pace. In Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam, rolling out economic stimulus policies should begin soon.
“While most emerging East Asian economies are assured of a sharp V-shaped recovery this year, it is too early to say that the ‘V’ stands for victory,” said Srinivasa Madhur, Senior Director of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration, which produced the AEM. “Ensuring the sustainability of the recovery depends heavily on the correct timing, policy mix, and pace at which economic stimulus is withdrawn. The private sector must be strong enough to take over,” he said.
“It’s critical for each country to withdraw the stimulus at an appropriate pace but greater regional coordination, especially on exchange rates, could spur regional demand and help global economic rebalancing,” said Mr. Madhur.
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