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Credit Suisse puts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 5.3%
A combination of export recovery and solid domestic demand will enable the Vietnamese economy to grow at 5.3% in 2009 and 8.5% in 2010, estimated Credit Suisse.
The Swiss bank said in its latest report on the economy that a shorter and milder than expected economic downturn will benefit Vietnam by allowing it to broaden the spectrum of economic reform.
Credit Suisse’s view is that Vietnam is certainly moving out of the slowdown so the bank has raised its 2009 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% and for 2010 to 8.5%.
“At these levels, our forecasts are more bullish than market consensus and that of the Vietnam government’s 6-6.5% 2010 growth estimate. Solid domestic consumption and anticipated recoveries in exports and investment are the main reasons for our optimism,” said a high-ranking executive from the bank.
Kai Nargolwala, Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse Asia Pacific and a member of the executive board of Credit Suisse Group, said: “The Government has done an impressive job in keeping liquidity and credit flowing, avoiding mass economic disruption and unemployment, as well as maintaining confidence in the country’s external finances and domestic institutions.”
Nargolwala said during a visit to Hanoi last week that the bank had raised some US$3 billion for Vietnam since 2005. “We look forward to arranging more financings for major projects and companies in Vietnam, and to support Vietnam as the country builds up its capital markets,” he said.
In the long run, said the CEO, Vietnam needs to consider further structural reforms, such as reducing the economy’s dependence on the U.S. dollar, accelerating privatization and liberalizing foreign ownership limits in order to grow the breadth and depth of its stock market.
He also pinned high hopes on the private sector as a momentum for the country’s economic recovery and development in the post-crisis period.
“Based on our research view, we would be looking for more momentum from the private sector,” he said.
In 2005, the bank was the sole book-runner of Vietnam’s US$750 million ground-breaking, debut sovereign bond issue. Additionally, it also has completed the largest merger & acquisition (M&A) transaction in Vietnam with Bao Viet’s US$254 million sale of a strategic stake to HSBC Insurance in 2006, and Swiss Re’s strategic stake acquisition in Vina Re in January 2008.
Credit Suisse arranged the first and largest off-shore syndicated loan ever in the country, Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group’s US$600 million senior unsecured syndicated loan in 2007. It also arranged the largest equity fund raising for a Vietnam-related entity - US$471 million IPO of Indochina Capital on the London Stock Exchange in 2007.
vietnamnet, sgt
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