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Optimistic predictions given for listed companies in coming months
Though analysts think that no listed companies will set any profit records in the last months of the year, they believe that the profit of the companies will be satisfactory.
In its latest report, the Saigon Securities Incorporated (SSI) described the profit listed companies got in the first half of the year as “impressive”. The total revenue of listed companies in SSI’s survey in the second quarter of the year increased slightly by 3.2 percent, but the post-tax profit of some companies increased impressively by 40.4 percent over the same period of last year.
In fact, the economic downturn did not have as great an impact on the operations of enterprises as previously forecast. Meanwhile, enterprises benefited greatly from the demand stimulus programme. As the stock market has recovered well, and stock prices have increased, they have been reimbursed for the financial provisions they set aside before.
Pretax profit of PetroVietnam Finance (PVFC) in the first six months of the year fulfilled 113 percent of its yearly plan, while Vinamilk (VNM) saw turnover up by 23.4 percent over the same period of last year – 70 percent of its yearly plan.
Earlier this year, when setting business plans for 2009, most businesses, which were warned about economic difficulties, set modest goals. However, after the first five months of the year, when they got good business results, a lot of enterprises adjusted targets. HPG has raised its post-tax profit target from 585 billion dong to 920 billion dong, while HAG has raised its target from 3,129 billion dong to 3,660 billion dong.
SSI believes that there will be nothing that will create surprises in business results in the second half of the year like in the first half. However, it believes that profit will keep increasing.
Other analysts share the same viewpoint as SSI, as they can see the national economy improving with the economic growth rate expected to reach 5 percent. Inflation, though expected to move up slightly, is still not a worrying problem.
Bao Viet Securities Company’s analysts think that the third quarter may be more difficult for listed companies in comparison with the second quarter, but the fourth quarter will be more favourable.
Among the listed companies on the bourse, some 36 percent are operating in finance and banking, 20 percent in making consumer products and 11 percent in basic material production. Pham Thanh Thai Linh, Deputy Head of Bao Viet Securities, said that all three branches will get satisfactory business results in the third and fourth quarters of the year.
The first group of businesses is believed will not meet any big difficulties as the stock market has become more stable. Meanwhile, consumer product makers will have the peak business season at the end of the year. The group of basic material producers will also have advantages in the last months of the year, when the demand becomes higher.
In 2008, some enterprises incurred heavy losses due to loans in foreign currencies. PPC was a typical example, when it lost 1,500 billion dong in 2008 due to the yen/VND exchange rate fluctuation. However, SSI believes that the exchange rate fluctuations will not be big this year, and the risk from exchange rate fluctuations, therefore, will not be great.
VietNamNet, VNE
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