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Vietnam will not have rice for export by 2020?
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has forecast that by 2020, Vietnam’s rice output may only be enough to satisfy domestic demand. Among the reasons it cites is the growing indifference of farmers.
Nguyen Tri Ngoc, Head of the Cultivation Department under MARD, said that the forecast was given after the department considered the population growth rate in the Mekong River Delta in particular and in Vietnam in general.
Ngoc said that Vietnam may not have rice for export by 2020 if it continues cultivating with the current “backward” agricultural techniques and makes no breakthrough in development.
Since 1990, thanks to the application of technical and scientific achievements in agriculture, Vietnam’s rice output has been increasing considerably year after year. In 2007, the rice output of the Mekong River Delta alone was 19 million tonnes and there were 1.9 million hectares of rice fields. Meanwhile, in 2009, Vietnam expects to reach the total yield of 20.7 million tonnes.
However, MARD believes that the rice yield has reached its peak (5,200 kilogrammes per hectare on average), and that the rice yield will not increase sharply anymore in the coming years.
The ministry has forecast that by 2020, the total rice growing area will have dropped to 1.8 million hectares and the highest possible rice yield will be some 21 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, it has estimated that the population in the Mekong River Delta will increase by three million people, which means that the demand for rice will be very big. Therefore, if Vietnam does not have a breakthrough in agricultural technology, Vietnam’s rice output by 2020 will only be able to meet domestic demand.
The ministry has cited another factor that it believes may affect rice output: Farmers have become less interested in rice fields. The ministry has warned about the higher percentage of rice fields which are being left fallow, threatening agricultural production in localities.
Dr Dang Kim Son, Head of the Institute for Policies and Strategies on Agriculture and Rural Development, said that what Vietnam needs to do is to urgently push up the modernisation and industrialisation of agriculture and rural areas.
Son applauded the recent decision by the Government to provide loans for farmers at preferential interest rates for the purchase of modern agricultural machines for production.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the average rice export price of Vietnam is just $220 per tonne, or 79.6 percent of the average rice price in the world. The level proves to be much lower than rice products provided by Thailand, India, the US and Pakistan.
In a revealing comparison, Vietnam exports 21.5 percent more rice than the US, but its profit 11.3 percent lower.
VietNamNet, TP
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