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Vietnam oil output may average 400,000 barrels a day, US says
Vietnam will probably produce an average of about 400,000 barrels of oil a day until at least 2030, the US government said, suggesting Vietnam will halt a four-year decline in output.
The projections accompanied the 2009 International Energy Outlook that the US Energy Information Administration released in Washington Wednesday.
A report on Vietnam last month by the International Monetary Fund cited an anticipated drop in oil production “in the longer run,” while the World Bank last year identified “production capacity constraints” as hampering the country’s industry. Vietnam is opening new areas to exploration as it attempts to reverse the production decline.
“There are some doubts about Vietnam’s ability to maintain its peak production level,” said Victor Shum, a Singapore-based senior principal at oil industry consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc., in a telephone interview Thursday. “The EIA projection is an optimistic outlook.”
Vietnamese oil production has declined each year since peaking in 2004 at about 427,000 barrels a day, according to BP Plc. Through the first five months of this year, Vietnam produced about 6.95 million tons, or about 345,000 barrels a day, according to preliminary estimates from the General Statistics Office in Hanoi.
Other scenarios
Vietnam could maintain production of 400,000 barrels a day through 2030 in a low oil price scenario, according to the Energy Information Administration. In a high oil price scenario, Vietnamese production would be expected to slip to about 300,000 barrels a day by 2025, said the organization.
Vietnam’s major oil field, operated by a Russian -Vietnamese venture, has been declining in output after more than two decades of production.
But last year, ConocoPhillips, Nippon Oil Corp., Soco International Plc and Talisman Energy Inc. all began production from new Vietnam oil fields in which they hold shares. Premier Oil Plc, Soco and Talisman are among companies planning new output.
“There’s a fair amount of exploration going on in Vietnam and no one has really started with the deepwater areas yet,” said Tony Foster, Hanoi-based Vietnam managing partner for the law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, whose clients include oil companies. “A lot depends on the outcome of China’s power play in the area.”
BP said in March that it would withdraw from a Vietnamese exploration area. The government in Hanoi said in 2007 that projects involving BP off its coast are in Vietnamese territory, after China cited concern over “actions” by its neighbor in the area. BP declined to comment in March on whether the territorial dispute influenced its decision.
thanhnien, bloomberg
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