|
Investment funds dare not dream of profit
Several investment funds have predicted that the VN Index will be 400 points by the end of the year, and think that it would be a great success if they could get the profit of a few percent, the same as the GDP growth rate.
The chief representative of a fund management company in Hanoi said that the predictions given earlier this year about the difficulties with investment funds have become true. The VN Index has been decreasing, which has made the funds’ portfolio values decrease accordingly.
The most difficult moment for the fund was in January 2009, when the market fell down dramatically from pre-Tet days. The situation has improved a little since the end of March. However, the representative does not think that the portfolio will be satisfactory by the end of April, as the market has been decreasing again for the past week. The fund does not have much money left, while he does not see a way to raise new funds in the near future.
VinaCapital, one of the biggest investment fund management companies in the market, said that the net asset value per share (NAVPS) of VOF fund had increased by 0.1% by March 31 in comparison with February. However, the figure has decreased since the beginning of the year. As for two other funds under the management of VinaCapital, VNL and VNI, the figures by March 31 had decreased by 5.2% and 3.1%, respectively, in comparison with December 2008.
Prior to that, according to the State Securities Commission (SSC), by the end of December 2008, the portfolio value of foreign investors had reached $4.6bil, a decrease of nearly $4bil from the beginning of 2008, the moment when portfolio value was the highest.
Some investment funds have given predictions that the VN Index will be 400 points by the end of the year, saying that the 400 point level proves to be reasonable considering the current state of the national economy and market.
Thang Long Meritz (TLM Capital) has also predicted the 400-point threshold for the VN Index at the end of the year, saying that the fund is becoming operational at this moment in order to prepare for the recovery time of the market.
Choi Chang Hoon, Investment Director of TLM Capital, is cautious about the market’s prospects.
“It is now the right time to make investment in Vietnamese stocks. However, we are not sure if the national economy has bottomed out yet,” he said.
The figures released have shown positive signs for the national economy. However, managers of investment funds still think that it is necessary to wait some more time before making any further predictions about the market.
In the report about Vietnam’s economy released on April 22, Citibank said that economic growth would slow down and credit would grow. The banking group has lowered the forecast GDP growth rate from 4.3% to 3.3%, noting that the export- and investment-based economy of Vietnam will still bear impacts from the global economic recession.
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund, prior to that, predicted 5.5% and 4.75% growth rates for Vietnam’s economy for 2009.
The chairman of an investment fund said that it would be a success if obtaining the profit of a few percent this year, the same as the GDP growth rate. He said that the fund aims at long-term business rather than just profit in 2009. “If optimising profit this year, we may lose opportunities the next years,” he said.
The chairman mentioned a characteristic of Vietnam’s market that the capital of Vietnamese people can be put into investments in Vietnam only, while it cannot be put into investments abroad. Therefore, the capital strength proves to be very big, and there is every reason to be optimistic about long-term prospects.
VietNamNet, VNE
|
