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Export companies hoarding dollars
The interbank official exchange rate stayed at VND16,941/US$1 on April 20, while commercial banks quoted the single price of VND17,788/US$1. Meanwhile, the dollar price on the black market increased by VND10/US$1 the same day with prices at VND18,220/US$1 (purchase) and VND18,260.US$1 (sale).
Dollar prices on the rise
As such, if compared to March 24, the first day of applying the trading band of 5%, the interbank exchange rate has decreased by VND39/US$1, while the exchange rate on the black market has gone the opposite way, with the price up by VND420/US$1.
Analysts say that the dollar buyers now mostly are import companies which need dollars for making payments for imports. However, many of them cannot purchase dollars from commercial banks, so they have to collect dollars on the black market.
The continued dollar price increases in recent days have also been explained by the fact that export companies, which have dollars from export contracts, are not selling dollars to banks, causing a dollar supply shortage. Moreover, foreign currency exchange shops also say that many of the dollar buyers these days are gold trading companies which have placed big volumes of dollars.
Influence from the gold market?
Some analysts believe that the dollar price on the black market has been increasing because gold traders are trying to collect dollars to import gold illegally to sell domestically.
However, the opinion has been rejected by experts, who say that gold traders are not importing gold at this moment as the domestic price is just VND320,000 higher than the world’s price. The experts say that traders will only import gold when the domestic price is at least VND700,000/tael higher than the world’s price.
To date, the State Bank of Vietnam has not granted licences for gold imports, but traders believe that quotas for gold imports will be granted in some days.
Export companies to be forced to sell dollars to banks?
Sources from commercial banks say that in order to improve the dollar supply, it is likely that the State Bank of Vietnam may force export companies to sell dollars to commercial banks right after they get dollars from foreign partners. In return, commercial banks will have to commit to sell dollars to businesses when businesses have a demand.
If so, the dollar supply at commercial banks will be profuse, which will force the VND/US$ exchange rate on the black market down.
VietNamNet, NLD
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