|
HSBC: Vietnam’s stock market not likely to bounce back soon
In the latest report Vietnam Monitor March 2009, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation continues giving pessimistic forecasts about Vietnam’s stock market in 2009.
The report said that Vietnam’s stock market has fallen by another 22% in 2009, becoming the worst market in Asia so far this year. Meanwhile, the MSCI of Asia Pacific (not including Japan) has fallen by 12% during the same time. If compared with the highest peak in March 2007, the VN Index has lost 81% of value in US dollars.
The daily average trading volume of both the Hanoi and HCM City in the last two months was reportedly at $13mil.
The total market capitalisation value has dropped to $10bil. There is no share item on the market which has the market capitalisation value of over $1bil, while there are only four share items with the market capitalisation value of over $500mil. Of these four, one share item has no more room for foreign investors.
The report said that the sales by foreign investors on the market have been slowing down. While the net sale by foreign investors in Q4 2008 was high at $127mil, the figure was just $2mil in the last two months.
Of 329 listed companies which had announced figures, 23 companies lost money in 2008, including companies which once caught the special attention of foreign investors like REE and Gemadept.
However, a lot of other enterprises still had impressive business results, most of which focused on their main business fields and did not get bogged down in non-forte investments. Vinamilk, a dairy producer, got the high growth rate of EPS at 27% and ROE at 27%.
The 29.5% EPS reduction of the stock market proves to be worse than the 10% reduction predicted by HSBC previously.
The report compilers believe that the EPS of Vietnam’s stock market will not increase this year, but may increase by 10% in 2010. With the given predictions, the P/E index of the next 12 months would be 9.5, the lowest ever level of the VN Index.
Currently, the P/Es of many listed share items have dropped to record lows. Vinamilk, for example, has dropped by 10.8 times, FPT 7.2, and Hoa Phat 5.8.
However, HSBC believes that the current stock prices are not cheap at all. The P/E for the next 12 months in Thailand and China are expected to be 8.2 and 7.8.
HSBC believes that venturous investors could purchase shares of good listed companies in Vietnam at this moment with the hope of gaining profit in the long term. However, HSBC thinks that Vietnam’s stock market will still witness difficulties this year.
VietNamNet, TBKTVN
|
