|
Stock market poised to resume downward path
Investors at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange heaved a sigh of relief at last Friday’s rally but analysts remain cautious, expecting the market to resume its slump this week.
The VN-Index, Vietnam’s main stock index, regained 11.2 points, or 3.69 percent, to close at 314.74 on Friday after diving to a three-year low of 303.54. The index has lost 66 percent of its value this year.
The HaSTC-Index of the smaller Hanoi stock exchange staged a rebound of 6.75 percent last week to close on Friday at 104.2 points. During the day, the index dipped below 100, the level it started trading at in 2006.
“It’s now impossible to know whether the VN-Index will fall below the resistance level of 300 points. But in my opinion, the market remains in a downward trend,” said Nguyen Ngoc Tuoi, CEO of Kim Eng Securities Co. “Therefore investors should think twice before trading stocks.”
Unlike the previous weeks, sentiment on Vietnam’s stock market last week didn’t track global markets but seemed to be focused solely on the domestic economy, said Fiachra MacCana, research director of the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp.
“Despite Wall Street’s recovery on November 21, the HCMC market still retreated on Monday over growing worries about a slowdown in the economy” said MacCana, adding investors will begin dumping shares even more heavily if the VN-Index drops below 300 points.
In its latest report, Vincom Securities Corp.’s research department also said the market would remain gloomy in the medium-term. “However, investor confidence is upbeat over the five packages the government announced to stimulate the economy, including a delay in collecting the capital gains tax until July next year, a cut in corporate income tax by 3 percent to 25 percent,” the brokerage said.
It also expects the market will rally in the short-term. “If the global markets don’t post any sharp falls, the rally may last until middle of next week,” Vincom Securities Corp. said.
PVD and steel marker stocks top picks this week
Oil driller PV Drilling (PVD) and Hoa Phat Group (HPG) could be among this week's gainers.
“Many investors have opted for PVD, which has shown a healthy recovery since June,” said Fiachra MacCana.
PVD, which offers technical services to the oil and natural gas industry, rose 3.6 percent on Friday to close at VND72,500. It was among eight stocks that rose on all five trading days last week. Technical analysis showed the firm’s share price will enter a new rising period.
Steel stocks, meanwhile, may move into positive territory after the Ministry of Planning and Investment increased the import tax of steel ingot to 5 percent from zero to protect domestic makers from overseas competition.
The ministry also proposed an increase in the imported tax of finished steel to 20 percent from the current 10 percent.
Along with Hoa Phat Group, the country’s largest steel producer, analysts expect other makers – including SMC Investment - Trading Joint Stock Co. (SMC), Vietnam - Italy Steel Joint Stock Co. (VIS), Viet Han Corp. (VHG) and Ho Chi Minh City Metal Corp. (HMC) – will be best choice for small-time investors.
Tuong Chau
Thanh nien
|
