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Statistics can’t talk
In principle, enterprises need exact statistics about the national economy to draw up business plans. However, in many cases, there are conflicting figures and they don’t know which figures are the most reliable.
In June 2008, newspapers all quoted the General Statistics Office as saying that the trade deficit in the first five months of the year was $14.4bil. The figure has also been cited in many reports by economists and researchers, who tried to say that the figure was really worrying.
The figure has also sparked worries about the current account imbalance of Vietnam as well as the country’s ability to keep the value of the local currency stable.
In June, the General Statistics Office said that the trade deficit in the month slowed down compared to the previous five months ($1.3bil vs $3bil in March and April). As such, if adding up the $1.3bil trade deficit in June and $14.4bil worth of trade deficit in the first five months of the year, one can see that the total trade deficit of the first half of the year would be $15.7bil.
However, the statistics office announced the trade deficit for the first six months of the year at $14.8bil.
There is only one way to explain the difference in the two figures: the estimate about the trade deficit for the first five months of the year was not accurate. In other words, there was a mistake with the figure of $14.4bil for the first five months of the year announced before.
In fact, mistakes with figures have been made several times. For example, in February 2008, the statistics office said that the total import turnover of commodities in January was $7.2bil, higher than the sum of $5.5bil the office estimated at the end of January.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the trade gap in July decreased to $800mil. And if adding up the sum of $14.8bil and $800mil, the trade deficit of the seven months would be $15.6bil. However, the ministry stated that the trade deficit of the seven months was $15.01bil only. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Planning and Investment released the figure of $15.24bil.
Enterprises need exact figures to draw up business plans. If the figures are unreliable, their business plans will be imperiled. Wrong statistics will also lead to wrong macroeconomic policies.
VNN
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