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Gloomy outlook for trade deficit
The trade deficit will increase to as much as US$14 billion next year, up from this year's estimated $12 billion, according to a forecast from the Ministry of Planning and Investment's Economic Services Department.
Exports next year, excluding crude oil, were expected to total $78 billion – an increase of 10 per cent over the current year.
The department anticipated that exports by foreign-invested firms would make up roughly $38 billion, or nearly 49 per cent, of the total – an increase of 13 per cent over this year.
At the same time, imports were projected to jump by 11 per cent next year to about $92 billion, with foreign-invested firms responsible for $41.5 billion for their imports, 15.3 per cent higher than this year.
Export value in the current year had risen 24 per cent to $70.8 billion, benefiting from surges in both prices and the volume of exports, the department said, noting that export of value-added products from the manufacturing sector had risen while that of raw materials had reduced.
High global prices and a disadvantageous foreign exchange rate had also driven up the costs of imports in 2009, with the department estimating that imports for the year would increase by 18.4 per cent over the previous year to $82.8 billion.
The trade deficit for the year was estimated to reach $12 billion, 22.5 per cent lower than last year's figure.
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